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Monday, December 01, 2014

Harga minyak turun ekonomi negara pun jatuh?


Musyrif Abu Bakar  telah bertanya di fb beliau:
Ok benda ni aku tak belajar dulu.
Rupa-rupanya penurunan harga petrol bukan ssesuatu yang baik seperti yang semua orang sangka. Bakal mengundang inflasi.
Ada sapa-sapa boleh terangkan dalam penjelasan yang mudah difahami?

Saya menjawab ikut pemahaman saya seperti berikut:

Bahasa mudah cam ni kot... kalau keuntungan dari minyak tak berbaloi dengan usaha maka production pun tak banyak. Jualan sikit, tax sikit. Companies scale down employee (buang) untuk cut cost. Gomen yang 30-40% income dari royalti/tax minyak pun pasti akan suffer. Itu kot?

Ye la macam harga sawit atau getah la. Kalau harga jadi rendah. Boleh guna logik mudah camtu.

Saya dengar depa tengah push untuk shale gas. Shale gas ni paling banyak reserve kat North America dan China. Kat Arab yilek. We will wait and see.

Mungkin tak perang di China. Amerika dah menyampah kot perang kat tanah arab. Dari belanja berbilion perang baik belanja naik taraf exploration shale gas yang sebelum ini ditinggalkan.

Kami di UTP atas arahan Petronas telah awal lagi (sejak 2012) untuk terjun dalam teknologi shale gas. Kami telah establish working group bersama universiti dan companies di US untuk ini. Saya sendiri telah ikut trip ini 2 kali. Petronas telah invest di Canada. Ini adalah inisiatif Petronas dan mereka telah rasa bahangnya awal lagi.

Banyak mana PETRONAS dapat dari penjualan minyak akan beri kesan kepada pendapatan negara. 

Malaysia's oil and gas production is depleting and sustaining production will become more challenging due to matured basins, technically challenging reserves and stranded marginal oil and gas fields.

To promote the development of new oil and gas resources, provide incentives to develop technical-challenging resources and to further stimulate domestic exploration activities, the Government gazetted the Petroleum Income Tax Act (2010).

The new incentives are expected increase petroleum revenue by RM58.2 billion to the Government over the next 20 years but a notional trade-off of RM8.1 billion from revenue foregone from investment tax allowances, reduced tax and export duty waiver for marginal fields.

Downstream activities are regulated by two ministries: the Ministry of International Trade and Industry is responsible for all licences relating to refining, processing and petrochemicals sectors, while the Ministry of Domestic Trade and Consumer Affairs is responsible for licences to market and distribute petroleum products. http://www.mprc.gov.my/industry/history-of-oil-gas-in-malaysia

Dan hari ini, PETRONAS melaporkan;


SOALANNYA yang perlu dijawab oleh semua antara kita:

Apa tindakan anda? Menyusun kembali strategi masing-masing atau berdemo (di padang atau di fb)?

4 comments:

deaf-angel said...

thanks MM for the layman explaination first part tu.
Aku mula dapat a bit better picture pasal kat forum pages sokkabar Singapore, readers write ni complain kenapa harga petrol tak turun kat petrol stations padahal harga minyak turun.

Khai♥Rin : anies said...

shale gas tu sm ke mcm petrol sedia ada?

Ijau D. Koceng said...

petrol naik harga, harga barangan pun naik...

petrol turun harga, harga barangan statik

naik, statik, magik...

speedrider said...

Poyo betul la Musyrif tu